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![Portrait of Marine Le Pen]()
National Rally (RN)
Far right
Marine Le Pen
Leader of the RN group in the National Assembly, aged 58
Declared candidate on 7 July 2026; appeal to the Court of Cassation pending
8.7/10
Overall score
1st out of 16
+Strengths
- Leads every first-round poll: 32 to 37% in October 2026
- Wins every run-off match-up tested, from 54 to 69%
- Her ineligibility was cut on appeal on 7 July 2026, which lets her run
- Fourth campaign, with a very loyal electorate
−Weaknesses
- Convicted on appeal in the European Parliament assistants case
- Appeal to the Court of Cassation pending: some legal uncertainty remains
- Three presidential defeats; still strongly rejected by part of the country
In the polls
34.8% on average over the last 30 days, +0.4 pt in three months.
52 polls since 26 March 2025. All polls
Proposals
- Pensions
- Repeal the 2023 reform and return to 62, with retirement possible at 60 for those who started work before 20.
- Work and purchasing power
- Cut VAT on energy from 20 to 5.5% and exempt pay rises granted by companies from social contributions.
- Taxes and spending
- Replace the tax on real-estate wealth with a tax on financial wealth.
- Immigration
- A referendum on immigration, an end to birthright citizenship and family reunification, and national preference for jobs, housing and benefits.
- Europe and defence
- A “Europe of nations”; leave NATO's integrated command while staying in the Alliance; limited support for Ukraine.
- Energy and climate
- A massive relaunch of nuclear power; a moratorium on wind and solar, and gradual dismantling of wind turbines.
- Institutions and security
- Proportional representation for legislative elections and a citizens' initiative referendum from 500,000 signatures.
Sources: France-Vote, Marine Le Pen 2027 profile ; Votons 2027, her programme by theme.
Chances in our scenarios
| Scenario | Reaches the run-off | Wins the election |
|---|---|---|
| The current landscape | more than 99% | 90% |
| The centrist bloc behind Philippe | more than 99% | 84% |
| Right and centre united | more than 99% | 77% |
| The left united behind Glucksmann | more than 99% | 90% |
Profile
What the scores measure
- Experience
- Offices held, government roles, knowledge of the State
- Name recognition
- How well known they are to the public
- Communication
- Media skills, debating, social media presence
- Polls
- First-round voting intentions in October 2026, and their trend
- Reach
- Ability to win votes beyond their own camp in the run-off
- Party machine
- Party strength: activists, elected officials, funding