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Who will be elected on 2 May 2027?

Five scenarios of who runs, each simulated 20,000 times from October 2026 polls and the lessons of past elections. A simulation is not a prediction: it shows what would happen if public opinion stayed where it is today.

Portrait of Marine Le Pen

The National Rally wins in all five scenarios.

Whether with Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella, the RN candidate wins 77 to 90% of simulations, depending on who runs. The strongest opponent is Édouard Philippe, who reaches a 22% chance in the “Right and centre united” scenario.

The five scenarios

The current landscape

All declared candidates stay in the race: Philippe and Attal split the centrist bloc, and the left is divided.

Average of the 24 poll scenarios that test these candidacies (Elabe, Harris, Ifop, Ipsos, OpinionWay, YouGov), from 9 September 2026 to 22 October 2026.

Most likely today Adjust in the simulator

First round, 18 April

Estimated voting intentionsQualifies
Marine Le Pen 33.2% more than 99%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 15.3% 66%
Édouard Philippe 12.4% 24%
Raphaël Glucksmann 10.8% 11%
Bruno Retailleau 6.3% less than 1%
Gabriel Attal 5.9% less than 1%
Éric Zemmour 4% less than 1%
David Lisnard 4% less than 1%
Marine Tondelier 2.8% less than 1%
Fabien Roussel 1.9% less than 1%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.8% less than 1%
Other candidates 1%
Nathalie Arthaud 0.6% less than 1%

The thin line shows the range the score falls within in 8 simulations out of 10.

Run-off, 2 May

Most likely run-off, occurring in 65% of simulations

Portrait of Marine Le Pen
Marine Le Pen
vs
Portrait of Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Marine Le Pen 65.9% 34.1% Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Marine Le Pen wins more than 99% of the simulations where this run-off happens.

Other possible run-offs
Run-offProbabilityWinner's score
Marine Le Pen vs Édouard Philippe24%52.7%
Marine Le Pen vs Raphaël Glucksmann10%56.2%
Édouard Philippe vs Jean-Luc Mélenchonless than 1%62.2%
Marine Le Pen vs Bruno Retailleauless than 1%57%

Chances of being elected

Marine Le Pen 90%
Édouard Philippe 8%
Raphaël Glucksmann 2%

The other candidates win fewer than 1 simulation in 200.

Where the run-off votes come from

Marine Le PenJean-Luc MélenchonAbstention or blank vote

Marine Le Pen 93 / 0
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 0 / 93
Édouard Philippe 28 / 2
Raphaël Glucksmann 2 / 45
Bruno Retailleau 78 / 0
Gabriel Attal 28 / 2
Éric Zemmour 93 / 0
David Lisnard 78 / 0
Marine Tondelier 0 / 77
Fabien Roussel 1 / 91
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 93 / 0

For each first-round electorate, the share (in %) voting for each finalist; the rest abstain or cast a blank vote.

Every possible run-off

The model's projection for every head-to-head between the main contenders, compared with polls when the match-up has been tested.

Bruno Retailleau 70.5% 29.5% Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Not yet tested by pollsters

Marine Le Pen 67.8% 32.2% Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Polls: 68% for Le Pen (15 polls in the last two months, latest by OpinionWay on 22 Oct 2026)

Jordan Bardella 66.9% 33.1% Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Not yet tested by pollsters

Bruno Retailleau 63.7% 36.3% Raphaël Glucksmann

Not yet tested by pollsters

Édouard Philippe 63.5% 36.5% Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Polls: 64% for Philippe (2 polls in the last two months, latest by YouGov on 15 Oct 2026)

Gabriel Attal 61.6% 38.4% Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Not yet tested by pollsters

Édouard Philippe 61.1% 38.9% Gabriel Attal

Not yet tested by pollsters

Raphaël Glucksmann 58.3% 41.7% Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Not yet tested by pollsters

Marine Le Pen 57.8% 42.2% Bruno Retailleau

Polls: 58% for Le Pen (1 poll by Ifop on 25 Aug 2026)

Jordan Bardella 56.7% 43.3% Bruno Retailleau

Not yet tested by pollsters

Marine Le Pen 56.4% 43.6% Raphaël Glucksmann

Polls: 56% for Le Pen (9 polls in the last two months, latest by OpinionWay on 22 Oct 2026)

Marine Le Pen 56.3% 43.7% Gabriel Attal

Polls: 56% for Le Pen (7 polls in the last two months, latest by Ifop on 19 Oct 2026)

Bruno Retailleau 56.3% 43.7% Gabriel Attal

Not yet tested by pollsters

Jordan Bardella 55.2% 44.8% Raphaël Glucksmann

Not yet tested by pollsters

Jordan Bardella 54.6% 45.4% Gabriel Attal

Not yet tested by pollsters

Marine Le Pen 54.1% 45.9% Édouard Philippe

Polls: 54% for Le Pen (15 polls in the last two months, latest by OpinionWay on 22 Oct 2026)

Bruno Retailleau 53.2% 46.8% Édouard Philippe

Not yet tested by pollsters

Jordan Bardella 52.5% 47.5% Édouard Philippe

Not yet tested by pollsters

Édouard Philippe 51.1% 48.9% Raphaël Glucksmann

Not yet tested by pollsters

Raphaël Glucksmann 50.7% 49.3% Gabriel Attal

Not yet tested by pollsters

What past elections teach us

The far right's score in the run-off

As a share of votes cast. For 2027, the poll range depending on the opponent.

0% 25% 50% 75% Absolute majority 2002 : 17.8% 17.8% 2002 absent 2007 absent 2012 2017 : 33.9% 33.9% 2017 2022 : 41.5% 41.5% 2022 2027 polls: 54 to 69% depending on the opponent 54–69% 2027 polls

In 2007 and 2012, the National Front did not qualify (10.4% then 17.9% in the first round).

Polls six months out are often wrong

Voting intentions a few months before the vote, then the first-round result.

Polls at the timeResult

Édouard Balladur 1995 30 → 18.6%
Emmanuel Macron 2017 14 → 24%
Benoît Hamon 2017 16 → 6.4%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 2022 9 → 21.9%
Éric Zemmour 2022 16 → 7.1%
Valérie Pécresse 2022 17 → 4.8%

2022

Emmanuel Macron 58.55% 41.45% Marine Le Pen

12 candidates, 73.7% turnout in the first round. Second place qualified with 23.15%.

Mélenchon misses the run-off by 1.2 points while Jadot, Roussel and Hidalgo total 8.7%. The final gap narrows from 32 to 17 points.

2017

Emmanuel Macron 66.10% 33.90% Marine Le Pen

11 candidates, 77.8% turnout in the first round. Second place qualified with 21.30%.

Four candidates between 19.6 and 24%: qualification comes down to 1.3 points. Both traditional parties of government are eliminated.

2012

François Hollande 51.64% 48.36% Nicolas Sarkozy

10 candidates, 79.5% turnout in the first round. Second place qualified with 27.18%.

The last classic left-versus-right run-off. The incumbent loses narrowly.

2007

Nicolas Sarkozy 53.06% 46.94% Ségolène Royal

12 candidates, 83.8% turnout in the first round. Second place qualified with 25.87%.

Record turnout. Sarkozy draws in National Front voters and Bayrou surges to 18.6% without qualifying.

2002

Jacques Chirac 82.21% 17.79% Jean-Marie Le Pen

16 candidates, 71.6% turnout in the first round. Second place qualified with 16.86%.

The shock of 21 April: with eight left-wing candidates, Jospin is knocked out by 0.7 points. The “republican front” works in full (82%).

Six lessons for 2027

The far right grows at every election

In the run-off it rose from 17.8% in 2002 to 33.9% in 2017, then 41.5% in 2022. Autumn 2026 polls put it between 54 and 69% depending on the opponent: it would be its first victory.

Second place is a close call

Qualifying has taken between 16.9% (2002) and 27.2% (2012). With the RN around 34%, second place could be won with 15 to 18%: Mélenchon, Philippe and Glucksmann are fighting for it.

Division is costly

In 2002, Jospin was knocked out by 0.7 points amid eight left-wing candidacies. In 2022, Mélenchon fell 1.2 points short while three other left-wing candidates totalled 8.7%. In 2027, both the left and the centrist bloc start out divided.

The “republican front” is wearing thin

The gap between the winner and Marine Le Pen fell from 32 points in 2017 to 17 points in 2022. In 2022, barely more than 4 in 10 Mélenchon voters backed Macron in the run-off: vote transfers can no longer be taken for granted.

Polls overestimated Le Pen in the run-off

Final polls gave her 37 to 38% in 2017 (33.9% in the end) and 43 to 45% in 2022 (41.5%). A 2 to 4 point bias, which the simulator lets you apply.

Six months out, nothing is settled

Balladur was tipped to win in 1995, Macron hovered around 14% six months before 2017, and Mélenchon stood at 9% six months before 2022. And without an incumbent, as in 2027, surprises have always followed.

Method and limits

First round

The “Current landscape” and “Philippe alone in the centre” scenarios use the average of the last 45 days of poll scenarios that test exactly these candidacies. The other three are derived from them with explicit vote-transfer rules, stated under each scenario. To reflect the uncertainty six months out, each score varies in every draw with a standard deviation of 18% of its value plus 1 point, in line with the gaps seen in 2017 and 2022.

Run-off

Each first-round electorate splits between the two finalists and abstention according to how close it is to their camps (see table) and the finalists' “Reach” score. These affinities are recalibrated at each poll update to match the run-offs recently tested by pollsters (29 October 2026): Attal vs Le Pen, 44% in the polls and 43.7% in the model ; Glucksmann vs Le Pen, 43.6% in the polls and 43.6% in the model ; Mélenchon vs Le Pen, 32.2% in the polls and 32.2% in the model ; Philippe vs Le Pen, 45.5% in the polls and 45.9% in the model ; Retailleau vs Le Pen, 42% in the polls and 42.2% in the model ; Mélenchon vs Philippe, 36.5% in the polls and 36.5% in the model. An error of 4.5 points is added to every draw.

Limits

The model cannot foresee campaign events, debates, court rulings or last-minute endorsements. It assumes opinion stays where it was in October 2026. The figures are a snapshot, not a forecast.

Affinity between electorates and finalists

From 0 (rejection) to 10 (same camp). The darker the cell, the more readily the electorate transfers its votes.

Voters of…Far rightRightCentreLeftGreensRadical left
Far right 10 6 2.2 1.6 1 3.5
Right 6 10 6.3 3.1 2.2 0.8
Centre 3.5 8.1 10 5.2 5 2.4
Left 1.1 4.7 6.3 10 8.6 6
Greens 0.8 2.7 5.1 9 10 7.5
Radical left 3.4 1.8 3.6 6.9 7 10
Others 5 4.8 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.8