Head to head

Pick two contenders to compare their scores and their run-off match-up.

If they met in the run-off

Bruno Retailleau 56.3% 43.7% Gabriel Attal

Model projection based on the latest first-round polls and on vote transfers calibrated on run-off polls. See the method.

Theme	Bruno Retailleau	Gabriel Attal
Pensions	Announces a new pension reform, with no details published so far.	Scrap the legal retirement age in favour of the contribution period alone, with penalties and bonuses, and add a funded component.
Work and purchasing power	Cut regulations for businesses; build a million extra homes in five years by scrapping the “zero net land take” target.	Remove tax on overtime.
Taxes and spending	No specific proposal known.	No new wealth tax; a targeted tax cut for the middle classes; a balanced-budget rule written into the Constitution.
Immigration	A referendum on immigration, prepared by a revision of the Constitution.	Labour-immigration quotas voted each year by Parliament, a Canadian-style points system, tighter family reunification.
Institutions and security	A constitutional revision put to a referendum from autumn 2027, with a “Charter of republican order”; a state of emergency in neighbourhoods hit by drug trafficking.	No specific proposal known.

Bruno RetailleauGabriel Attal