Head to head

Pick two contenders to compare their scores and their run-off match-up.

If they met in the run-off

Édouard Philippe 47% 53% David Lisnard

Model projection based on the latest first-round polls and on vote transfers calibrated on run-off polls. See the method.

Theme	Édouard Philippe	David Lisnard
Pensions	Gradually raise the legal retirement age to 65 and the contribution period to 45 years, with a third of employees exempted.	Introduce a funded component into the pension system.
Work and purchasing power	Exempt two hours of overtime a week from contributions (about €1,000 more a year on the minimum wage); cap unemployment benefits at 12 months for under-50s.	No specific proposal known.
Taxes and spending	Replace only one civil servant in three who retire; a single family allowance of €350 a month from the first child; some twenty ordinances from July 2027.	Bring public spending down to about 50% of GDP in ten years; cut production taxes (scrapping the C3S and CVAE) and corporate tax from 25 to 20%.
Immigration	Halve legal immigration (well under 200,000 residence permits a year); a European list of safe countries whose nationals could no longer claim asylum.	Cut residence permits issued eightfold, revisit the 1968 Franco-Algerian agreement, end automatic birthright citizenship, allow administrative detention of up to 24 months.
Europe and defence	Reaffirmed support for Ukraine.	Negotiate a treaty to “democratise” Europe, letting a member state call a referendum when blocked on a question of sovereignty.
Energy and climate	A single climate-adaptation fund of €2 billion a year.	An ecology “of freedom”: the State sets environmental goals without dictating how to reach them.

Édouard PhilippeDavid Lisnard