Head to head

Pick two contenders to compare their scores and their run-off match-up.

If they met in the run-off

Édouard Philippe 51.1% 48.9% Raphaël Glucksmann

Model projection based on the latest first-round polls and on vote transfers calibrated on run-off polls. See the method.

Theme	Édouard Philippe	Raphaël Glucksmann
Pensions	Gradually raise the legal retirement age to 65 and the contribution period to 45 years, with a third of employees exempted.	Repeal the 2023 reform and give a council run mainly by the social partners the task of steering pensions.
Work and purchasing power	Exempt two hours of overtime a week from contributions (about €1,000 more a year on the minimum wage); cap unemployment benefits at 12 months for under-50s.	Rebalance taxation, which weighs more on work than on capital and inheritance, so that work pays more.
Taxes and spending	Replace only one civil servant in three who retire; a single family allowance of €350 a month from the first child; some twenty ordinances from July 2027.	The Zucman tax: a 2% minimum tax on fortunes above €100 million; tax very large inheritances.
Immigration	Halve legal immigration (well under 200,000 residence permits a year); a European list of safe countries whose nationals could no longer claim asylum.	Legal routes for labour immigration, asylum claims processed within six months, repeal of the 2024 immigration law.
Europe and defence	Reaffirmed support for Ukraine.	Autonomous European defence funded by €500 billion of joint borrowing; more military aid to Ukraine; a more federal Europe.
Energy and climate	A single climate-adaptation fund of €2 billion a year.	Consolidate the nuclear fleet and build new reactors, with electricity prices based on French production costs.

Édouard PhilippeRaphaël Glucksmann