Head to head

Pick two contenders to compare their scores and their run-off match-up.

If they met in the run-off

Fabien Roussel 34.1% 65.9% Marine Le Pen

Model projection based on the latest first-round polls and on vote transfers calibrated on run-off polls. See the method.

Theme	Fabien Roussel	Marine Le Pen
Pensions	Retirement at 60 on a full pension and a 32-hour week with no loss of pay.	Repeal the 2023 reform and return to 62, with retirement possible at 60 for those who started work before 20.
Work and purchasing power	A minimum wage of €1,600 net and a general pay rise; VAT on energy cut to 5.5%.	Cut VAT on energy from 20 to 5.5% and exempt pay rises granted by companies from social contributions.
Taxes and spending	No specific proposal known.	Replace the tax on real-estate wealth with a tax on financial wealth.
Immigration	Regulated reception and republican integration.	A referendum on immigration, an end to birthright citizenship and family reunification, and national preference for jobs, housing and benefits.
Europe and defence	Leave NATO, a policy of peace and disarmament, strict control of arms sales.	A “Europe of nations”; leave NATO's integrated command while staying in the Alliance; limited support for Ukraine.
Energy and climate	Public nuclear power: renationalise EDF and Engie, build at least six EPR reactors, cut electricity prices by up to 30%.	A massive relaunch of nuclear power; a moratorium on wind and solar, and gradual dismantling of wind turbines.
Institutions and security	No specific proposal known.	Proportional representation for legislative elections and a citizens' initiative referendum from 500,000 signatures.

Fabien RousselMarine Le Pen