Head to head

Pick two contenders to compare their scores and their run-off match-up.

If they met in the run-off

Marine Le Pen 89.8% 10.2% Éric Zemmour

Model projection based on the latest first-round polls and on vote transfers calibrated on run-off polls. See the method.

Theme	Marine Le Pen	Éric Zemmour
Pensions	Repeal the 2023 reform and return to 62, with retirement possible at 60 for those who started work before 20.	Legal retirement age of 64 (2022 programme).
Work and purchasing power	Cut VAT on energy from 20 to 5.5% and exempt pay rises granted by companies from social contributions.	No specific proposal known.
Taxes and spending	Replace the tax on real-estate wealth with a tax on financial wealth.	Cut production taxes and reject any wealth tax (2022 programme).
Immigration	A referendum on immigration, an end to birthright citizenship and family reunification, and national preference for jobs, housing and benefits.	“Zero immigration” and “remigration”: an end to birthright citizenship and family reunification, very limited asylum, expulsion of foreign offenders and jobless foreigners.
Europe and defence	A “Europe of nations”; leave NATO's integrated command while staying in the Alliance; limited support for Ukraine.	Leave NATO's integrated command (2022 programme).
Energy and climate	A massive relaunch of nuclear power; a moratorium on wind and solar, and gradual dismantling of wind turbines.	Relaunch nuclear power and stop wind power (2022 programme).
Institutions and security	Proportional representation for legislative elections and a citizens' initiative referendum from 500,000 signatures.	Criminal majority at 16 and mandatory minimum sentences.

Marine Le PenÉric Zemmour