Head to head

Pick two contenders to compare their scores and their run-off match-up.

If they met in the run-off

David Lisnard 66.4% 33.6% Marine Tondelier

Model projection based on the latest first-round polls and on vote transfers calibrated on run-off polls. See the method.

Theme	David Lisnard	Marine Tondelier
Pensions	Introduce a funded component into the pension system.	Undo the 2023 reform: back to 62, with early retirement for arduous jobs.
Work and purchasing power	No specific proposal known.	A minimum wage of €1,600 net.
Taxes and spending	Bring public spending down to about 50% of GDP in ten years; cut production taxes (scrapping the C3S and CVAE) and corporate tax from 25 to 20%.	A “climate wealth tax” on the most polluting large fortunes.
Immigration	Cut residence permits issued eightfold, revisit the 1968 Franco-Algerian agreement, end automatic birthright citizenship, allow administrative detention of up to 24 months.	No specific proposal known.
Europe and defence	Negotiate a treaty to “democratise” Europe, letting a member state call a referendum when blocked on a question of sovereignty.	Strengthen the European Green Deal, extend the carbon border tax, leave free-trade deals that encourage environmental dumping.
Energy and climate	An ecology “of freedom”: the State sets environmental goals without dictating how to reach them.	Gradual exit from nuclear power and 100% renewables, with an investment plan of about €100 billion a year.

David LisnardMarine Tondelier