Head to head

Pick two contenders to compare their scores and their run-off match-up.

If they met in the run-off

Édouard Philippe 52.5% 47.5% Éric Zemmour

Model projection based on the latest first-round polls and on vote transfers calibrated on run-off polls. See the method.

Theme	Édouard Philippe	Éric Zemmour
Pensions	Gradually raise the legal retirement age to 65 and the contribution period to 45 years, with a third of employees exempted.	Legal retirement age of 64 (2022 programme).
Work and purchasing power	Exempt two hours of overtime a week from contributions (about €1,000 more a year on the minimum wage); cap unemployment benefits at 12 months for under-50s.	No specific proposal known.
Taxes and spending	Replace only one civil servant in three who retire; a single family allowance of €350 a month from the first child; some twenty ordinances from July 2027.	Cut production taxes and reject any wealth tax (2022 programme).
Immigration	Halve legal immigration (well under 200,000 residence permits a year); a European list of safe countries whose nationals could no longer claim asylum.	“Zero immigration” and “remigration”: an end to birthright citizenship and family reunification, very limited asylum, expulsion of foreign offenders and jobless foreigners.
Europe and defence	Reaffirmed support for Ukraine.	Leave NATO's integrated command (2022 programme).
Energy and climate	A single climate-adaptation fund of €2 billion a year.	Relaunch nuclear power and stop wind power (2022 programme).
Institutions and security	No specific proposal known.	Criminal majority at 16 and mandatory minimum sentences.

Édouard PhilippeÉric Zemmour