Head to head

Pick two contenders to compare their scores and their run-off match-up.

If they met in the run-off

Édouard Philippe 57.7% 42.3% Marine Tondelier

Model projection based on the latest first-round polls and on vote transfers calibrated on run-off polls. See the method.

Theme	Édouard Philippe	Marine Tondelier
Pensions	Gradually raise the legal retirement age to 65 and the contribution period to 45 years, with a third of employees exempted.	Undo the 2023 reform: back to 62, with early retirement for arduous jobs.
Work and purchasing power	Exempt two hours of overtime a week from contributions (about €1,000 more a year on the minimum wage); cap unemployment benefits at 12 months for under-50s.	A minimum wage of €1,600 net.
Taxes and spending	Replace only one civil servant in three who retire; a single family allowance of €350 a month from the first child; some twenty ordinances from July 2027.	A “climate wealth tax” on the most polluting large fortunes.
Immigration	Halve legal immigration (well under 200,000 residence permits a year); a European list of safe countries whose nationals could no longer claim asylum.	No specific proposal known.
Europe and defence	Reaffirmed support for Ukraine.	Strengthen the European Green Deal, extend the carbon border tax, leave free-trade deals that encourage environmental dumping.
Energy and climate	A single climate-adaptation fund of €2 billion a year.	Gradual exit from nuclear power and 100% renewables, with an investment plan of about €100 billion a year.

Édouard PhilippeMarine Tondelier