Head to head

Pick two contenders to compare their scores and their run-off match-up.

If they met in the run-off

Éric Zemmour 47.5% 52.5% Édouard Philippe

Model projection based on the latest first-round polls and on vote transfers calibrated on run-off polls. See the method.

Theme	Éric Zemmour	Édouard Philippe
Pensions	Legal retirement age of 64 (2022 programme).	Gradually raise the legal retirement age to 65 and the contribution period to 45 years, with a third of employees exempted.
Work and purchasing power	No specific proposal known.	Exempt two hours of overtime a week from contributions (about €1,000 more a year on the minimum wage); cap unemployment benefits at 12 months for under-50s.
Taxes and spending	Cut production taxes and reject any wealth tax (2022 programme).	Replace only one civil servant in three who retire; a single family allowance of €350 a month from the first child; some twenty ordinances from July 2027.
Immigration	“Zero immigration” and “remigration”: an end to birthright citizenship and family reunification, very limited asylum, expulsion of foreign offenders and jobless foreigners.	Halve legal immigration (well under 200,000 residence permits a year); a European list of safe countries whose nationals could no longer claim asylum.
Europe and defence	Leave NATO's integrated command (2022 programme).	Reaffirmed support for Ukraine.
Energy and climate	Relaunch nuclear power and stop wind power (2022 programme).	A single climate-adaptation fund of €2 billion a year.
Institutions and security	Criminal majority at 16 and mandatory minimum sentences.	No specific proposal known.

Éric ZemmourÉdouard Philippe