Head to head

Pick two contenders to compare their scores and their run-off match-up.

If they met in the run-off

Marine Tondelier 33.6% 66.4% Bruno Retailleau

Model projection based on the latest first-round polls and on vote transfers calibrated on run-off polls. See the method.

Theme	Marine Tondelier	Bruno Retailleau
Pensions	Undo the 2023 reform: back to 62, with early retirement for arduous jobs.	Announces a new pension reform, with no details published so far.
Work and purchasing power	A minimum wage of €1,600 net.	Cut regulations for businesses; build a million extra homes in five years by scrapping the “zero net land take” target.
Taxes and spending	A “climate wealth tax” on the most polluting large fortunes.	No specific proposal known.
Immigration	No specific proposal known.	A referendum on immigration, prepared by a revision of the Constitution.
Europe and defence	Strengthen the European Green Deal, extend the carbon border tax, leave free-trade deals that encourage environmental dumping.	No specific proposal known.
Energy and climate	Gradual exit from nuclear power and 100% renewables, with an investment plan of about €100 billion a year.	No specific proposal known.
Institutions and security	No specific proposal known.	A constitutional revision put to a referendum from autumn 2027, with a “Charter of republican order”; a state of emergency in neighbourhoods hit by drug trafficking.

Marine TondelierBruno Retailleau