Head to head

Pick two contenders to compare their scores and their run-off match-up.

If they met in the run-off

Marine Tondelier 42.3% 57.7% Édouard Philippe

Model projection based on the latest first-round polls and on vote transfers calibrated on run-off polls. See the method.

Theme	Marine Tondelier	Édouard Philippe
Pensions	Undo the 2023 reform: back to 62, with early retirement for arduous jobs.	Gradually raise the legal retirement age to 65 and the contribution period to 45 years, with a third of employees exempted.
Work and purchasing power	A minimum wage of €1,600 net.	Exempt two hours of overtime a week from contributions (about €1,000 more a year on the minimum wage); cap unemployment benefits at 12 months for under-50s.
Taxes and spending	A “climate wealth tax” on the most polluting large fortunes.	Replace only one civil servant in three who retire; a single family allowance of €350 a month from the first child; some twenty ordinances from July 2027.
Immigration	No specific proposal known.	Halve legal immigration (well under 200,000 residence permits a year); a European list of safe countries whose nationals could no longer claim asylum.
Europe and defence	Strengthen the European Green Deal, extend the carbon border tax, leave free-trade deals that encourage environmental dumping.	Reaffirmed support for Ukraine.
Energy and climate	Gradual exit from nuclear power and 100% renewables, with an investment plan of about €100 billion a year.	A single climate-adaptation fund of €2 billion a year.

Marine TondelierÉdouard Philippe