Le P’tit Isoloir FR

Who will win the Élysée in 2027?

16 declared or likely contenders, scored on six criteria, with their strengths and weaknesses.

J‑171 First round on 18 April 2027, run-off on 2 May.

See who would win in each scenario
Portrait of Marine Le Pen
8.7/10
Marine Le Pen 1
Portrait of Jean-Luc Mélenchon
7.3/10
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 2
Portrait of Édouard Philippe
7.3/10
Édouard Philippe 3

The three highest overall scores

What's changed

Polls as of 22 October 2026

Who do you think will win?

Rank the candidates and score points at the end of every month in Le P’tit Isoloir, the site's prediction game.

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Rankings by criterion
Portrait of Marine Le Pen
8.7/10
National Rally (RN)

Marine Le Pen

Declared candidate on 7 July 2026; appeal to the Court of Cassation pending

Experience 8
Name recognition 10
Communication 8
Polls 10
Reach 7
Party machine 9
  • Leads every first-round poll: 32 to 37% in October 2026
  • Convicted on appeal in the European Parliament assistants case
Portrait of Jean-Luc Mélenchon
7.3/10
France Unbowed (LFI)

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Declared candidate on 3 May 2026

Experience 8
Name recognition 10
Communication 9
Polls 7
Reach 2
Party machine 8
  • Second in most polls: 16 to 19%
  • Heavy run-off defeat against Le Pen in the polls (31 to 36%)
Portrait of Édouard Philippe
7.3/10
Horizons

Édouard Philippe

Declared candidate since September 2024

Experience 9
Name recognition 9
Communication 7
Polls 6
Reach 7
Party machine 6
  • Former Prime Minister with a statesman's stature
  • Around 14%: closely followed, or even overtaken, by Mélenchon for second place
Portrait of Jordan Bardella
7.2/10
National Rally (RN)

Jordan Bardella

Not a candidate: possible replacement for Marine Le Pen

Experience 4
Name recognition 9
Communication 9
Polls 7
Reach 6
Party machine 8
  • Polled at 32 to 36% in the first round in spring 2026
  • No longer a candidate since Marine Le Pen declared
Portrait of Gabriel Attal
6.8/10
Renaissance

Gabriel Attal

Declared candidate on 22 May 2026

Experience 7
Name recognition 8
Communication 9
Polls 4
Reach 6
Party machine 7
  • Youngest Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic
  • Only about 5% when Philippe is also running
Portrait of Bruno Retailleau
6.2/10
The Republicans (LR)

Bruno Retailleau

Chosen by LR members on 19 April 2026

Experience 8
Name recognition 7
Communication 6
Polls 4
Reach 5
Party machine 7
  • Official candidate of The Republicans
  • 5 to 10% depending on the poll scenario
Portrait of Raphaël Glucksmann
5.8/10
Place Publique and Socialist Party

Raphaël Glucksmann

Chosen by the Socialist primary on 11 October 2026 (66%)

Experience 4
Name recognition 7
Communication 7
Polls 5
Reach 6
Party machine 6
  • Won the Socialist primary with 66% of the vote
  • Around 10 to 11% in the first round, behind Mélenchon
Portrait of Dominique de Villepin
5.8/10
La France humaniste

Dominique de Villepin

Not a declared candidate; tested in some polls

Experience 9
Name recognition 8
Communication 8
Polls 2
Reach 6
Party machine 2
  • International stature (UN speech against the Iraq war, 2003)
  • Never elected to any office
Portrait of Gérald Darmanin
5.7/10
Renaissance (Populaires)

Gérald Darmanin

Not a declared candidate; calls for a primary of the right and centre

Experience 8
Name recognition 8
Communication 8
Polls 2
Reach 4
Party machine 4
  • Long ministerial experience (Budget, Interior, Justice)
  • Not tested in recent polls
Portrait of Xavier Bertrand
5.5/10
Nous France

Xavier Bertrand

Candidacy announced; rejects any primary

Experience 8
Name recognition 7
Communication 6
Polls 2
Reach 6
Party machine 4
  • Former minister, re-elected regional president
  • Lost the 2021 LR primary
Portrait of François Ruffin
5/10
Debout !

François Ruffin

Declared candidate in April 2025, aiming for a single left-wing candidacy

Experience 4
Name recognition 7
Communication 8
Polls 2
Reach 6
Party machine 3
  • Rooted in working-class France, speaks to blue-collar voters
  • The unified primary he called for fell through
Portrait of Bernard Cazeneuve
5/10
La Convention

Bernard Cazeneuve

Declared candidate on 16 July 2026; turned down the Socialist primary

Experience 9
Name recognition 6
Communication 5
Polls 2
Reach 6
Party machine 2
  • Former Prime Minister, Interior Minister during the 2015 attacks
  • Outside the primary won by Glucksmann
Portrait of David Lisnard
4.8/10
Nouvelle Énergie

David Lisnard

Declared candidate on 31 March 2026, after leaving LR

Experience 7
Name recognition 4
Communication 7
Polls 3
Reach 5
Party machine 3
  • Mayor of Cannes since 2014, re-elected by a wide margin
  • Around 3 to 4% on average in the polls
Portrait of Fabien Roussel
4.7/10
French Communist Party (PCF)

Fabien Roussel

Chosen as candidate by the PCF on 6 September 2026

Experience 4
Name recognition 6
Communication 7
Polls 2
Reach 4
Party machine 5
  • Direct style, champions a “left of work”
  • About 2% in the polls (2.3% in 2022)
Portrait of Éric Zemmour
4.5/10
Reconquête

Éric Zemmour

Declared candidate on 17 September 2026

Experience 2
Name recognition 9
Communication 7
Polls 3
Reach 1
Party machine 5
  • Very high name recognition
  • 3 to 5% in the polls, against 7% in 2022
Portrait of Marine Tondelier
4.5/10
The Ecologists

Marine Tondelier

Chosen as candidate by The Ecologists on 21 September 2026

Experience 3
Name recognition 6
Communication 7
Polls 2
Reach 4
Party machine 5
  • A figurehead of left-wing unity in the 2024 legislative elections
  • 2 to 5% in the polls